政府债务、财政赤字与经济增长的动态研究——基于中国数据的分析

Dynamic Research of Government Debt,Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth:Based on the Analysis in China

运用政府债务、财政赤字和经济增长之间的理论模型,分析三者之间的关系并且进行实证检验。检验后发现,财政赤字对经济增长的作用是有限的,持续地增加财政赤字会增加政府的债务负担。经济的持续增长不仅有利于降低财政赤字,同时也可以有效缓解政府的债务压力。因此,这三个变量在一定条件下都处于动态均衡。最后,提出了相应的政策建议。

Based on the list of foreign literature, the author uses theoretical models of government debt, fiscal deficit and economic growth to analyze the relationship among the three, and then does empirical test. After test, the role of fiscal deficit to economic growth is limited, and sustained increase in the fiscal deficit would increase the debt burden of the government. Sustained economic growth not only helps to reduce fiscal deficit, but also can effec- tively alleviate the debt burden of the Government. Thus, these three variables would be dynamic equilibrium under certain conditions. Finally, the paper proposes policy recommendations.