美国实施抑或退出量化宽松货币政策对中国通货膨胀之影响——基于扩展的结构VAR(SVAR)模型估计法

Study on the Effect of Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy of United States on China's Inflation:Based on the Extended Structure VAR( SVAR) Model Estimation Method

鉴于VAR模型实证分析的局限性,借鉴国际最新研究成本使用结构VAR（SVAR）模型分析美国实施抑或退出量化宽松货币政策对中国通货膨胀的影响,对1990~2013年间的宏观统计数据进行平稳性检验和脉冲响应分析,认为美国量化宽松货币政策在短期对中国通货膨胀影响较大,但在长期这种影响会逐步下降并趋于稳定,美国量化宽松货币政策在短期内可以对中国产出起拉动作用,但从长期来看这种作用较小,外汇储备在短期内受美国宽松货币政策的影响较大,但对利率的影响较小。基于以上结论提出积极进行国际货币协调、扩大国际市场上人民币结算的范围及提高人民币国际地位等政策建议,以削弱美国量化宽松货币政策对中国经济的负面影响。

In view of the limitations of VAR model, based on the latest research this paper uses structure VAR （SVAR） model to analyze the impact of quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States to China＇s infla- tion, stability test and impulse response analysis on the macro statistical data of 1990 -2013 ,the author thinks that in the short - term the quantitative easing monetary policy of United States has larger effect to Chinas inflation, and in the long term this effect will be gradually decreased and stabilized, and the U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy can play a stimulating effect on Chinas output in the short term, and in the long term this effect is small, in the short term the influence of loose monetary policy to foreign exchange reserves is larger, but less impact on inter- est rates. The paper put forward actively international monetary coordination, expanding the range of the internation- al market of RMB settlement and improving the international status of the RMB to weaken the negative effect of quantitative easing monetary policy to our country＇ s economy.