气候变化背景下湿地生态系统适应度评价——以盘锦湿地为例

The Evaluation of Adaption of Wetland Ecosystem to Climate Change:A Case Study in Panjin Wetland

【目的】对气候变化背景下湿地生态系统的适应度进行评价,以期为湿地管理决策提供参考,推动湿地的可持续建设。【方法】选取湿地水资源、生态和社会经济系统作为盘锦湿地适应度评价的子系统,并据此构建评价指标体系,再利用层次分析法确定指标权重,运用模糊综合评价法确定适应度。【结果】盘锦湿地2000-2012年整体适应能力一般,处于中等水平状态,呈波动增长趋势,各子系统适应能力差距较大。其中生态子系统与整体发展类似,受不利因素影响程度很大;水资源子系统适应能力较弱,处于中等偏差状态,受不利因素影响程度较大;社会经济子系统处于逐步适应状态,发展较好,受不利因素影响程度较小。【结论】盘锦湿地亟须加强适应性管理,提高适应能力。

[Obj ective]The aim of the study was to evaluate the adaption of wetland ecosystem toclimate change.This can provide references for decision-making in wetland management and thesustainable construction of wetland.[Method]The water resource,ecological,social and economicsystems were used as the subsystems to evaluate of the adaption of Panj in wetland to climatechange.Based on the built indicator system of assessment,the determinative weight valuesof the factors were determined using the AHP analytical method.Fuzzy comprehension evaluationmethod was used to determine the adaption values.[Results]Adaption ability of Panj in wetlandwas in medium level.There was a significant differences between subsystems.Among these,theadaption of ecological system was greatly affected by negative factors which were similar to thewhole.The adaption of water resource system was also greatly affected by negative factors andthis subsystem was in a poorer state.However,social and economic systems were less affected bynegative factors and gradually adapt to climate change.[Conclusion]To improve the adaption ofPanj in wetland to climate change,adaptive management is needed badly.