贵州省农村居民边际消费倾向研究——基于状态空间模型的实证分析

Research on the Rural Residents' Marginal Propensity to Consume of Guizhou Province:the Empirical Analysis Based on State Space Model

【目的】研究1978-2013年贵州省农村居民的边际消费倾向。【方法】以改革开放以来贵州省农村居民收入结构和消费需求数据为基础,通过构建区域消费的状态空间模型,对贵州省农村居民消费情况进行了计量分析。【结果】1978-2013年贵州省农村居民的边际消费倾向波动轨迹大体呈现出不规则的"W"形,且拥有不同收入结构居民的边际消费倾向也存在一定的差异。【结论】应根据农村居民不同收入结构采取不同刺激消费措施;要加大政府对"三农"的投入力度,推进城镇化建设、促进农村剩余劳动力转移;要进一步改革收入分配制度,完善初次分配和再分配机制。

[Objective]In order to study the rural residents＇marginal propensity to consume inGuizhou province in 19 78-20 13 .[Method]Based on income structure and consumption demanddata since 19 78,the state space model of regional consumption was built to conduct a econometricanalysis on the rural residents＇marginal propensity to consume in Guizhou province.[Results]Measurement results show that the trail of rural residents＇marginal propensity to consume inGuizhou province from 19 78 to 20 13 generally presents the irregular ＂W＂shape,and residents ofdifferent income structure,have different marginal propensity to consume.[Conclusion]Based onthese analysis,this paper puts forward the following Suggestions：first,different measuresshould be taken to stimulate consumption according to different income structure of rural residents;Second,the government should increase the investment of ＂agriculture,rural areas andfarmers＂,improve urbanization construction,and promote the transfer of rural surplus labor;Finally,further reform of income distribution system should be promote to perfect the mechanism ofprimary distribution and redistribution,etc.