21世纪以来四川省耕地变化驱动因素及耕地利用效率定量研究

The Quantitative Study on the Using Efficiency and Driving Factors of Changing of Cultivated Area in Sichuan since the Beginning of 21 Century

【目的】耕地利用效率评价是对耕地投入后的生产效益进行评估,评价其实际效益是否达到了与耕地投入相当的预期效益。【方法】以四川省2000-2012年的耕地总量普查数据为基础,从经济、科技、人口3个方面选取10个指标作为影响耕地总量变化的因子,运用主成分分析法分析引起四川省耕地总量变化的主要驱动因素,在此基础上引入DEA模型,建立评价指标体系对历年耕地利用效率进行了测算。【结果】经主成分分析,经济发展与人口因素、农业科技进步因素对所有驱动因子的概括程度为97.926%,因此确定该两个因素为影响四川省耕地面积总量变化主要驱动因素,另外政策因素也在四川省耕地面积总量变化中发挥了重要作用;经数据包络分析,四川省耕地利用综合效率为0.956,纯技术效率为0.999,规模效率为0.957,总体水平较高且稳定性好,全省耕地利用效率未达到最优主要是由规模效率相对较低引起的。【结论】评价方法可为今后研究如何合理利用耕地资源提供更多的思路,结果也可为效益评价提供参考。

[Objective]The evaluation of using efficiency of cultivated land is the evaluation about the productivity effect after the investment put into the cultivated land,and its aim is to value whether the actual benefits reach the anticipated benefit according to the investment.[Method]Based on the Statistics and Census Data of Sichuan from 2000 to 2012,10 indexes from the field of economy,technology and population were selected as factors which have affect on the change of the quantity of cultivated land,principal component analysis was used to analyze the main driving factors,and DEA （data envelopment analysis）was adopted to build evaluating system to measure the using efficiency of the cultivated land.[Results]The principal component analysis shows that the factors ＂economy＇s development and population＂and ＂agricultural science＂ could summarized all the factors,and the percentage reaches 97.926%,as a result,these two factors were con-firmed to be the main driving factors that leaded to the change of the quantity of cultivated land in Sichuan.besides,the factor＂policy＂played an important role in the change of cultivated land of Sichuan;The DEA （data envelopment analysis）shows that the comprehensive using efficiency of＂nbsp;cultivated land of Sichuan province was 0.956,and the pure technical efficiency was 0.999,and scale efficiency was 0.957,which showed a relatively high level and good stability.[Conclusion]The evaluation method could provide more ideas for future researches on cultivated land use, which could also provide more references for the benefit evaluation of land using.