福建省外商直接投资与服务业发展的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Foreign Direct Investment and Service Industry Development in Fujian

基于数据的可得性,利用1991-2012年的数据构建VAR模型,进行脉冲响应和方差分解分析,以探究福建省外商直接投资和服务业发展的互动关联。结果显示,福建省的外商直接投资和服务业具有较强的自身解释能力;外商直接投资对于服务业的发展负向作用大于正向作用;服务业的发展有利于提高福建省的投资引力,对增加外商直接投资具有一定的促进作用。隐含的政策含义是,在促进产业结构优化升级的道路上,福建省应加大力度扶持服务业,有选择地引进外资,利用服务业自身的扩展效应,培植国民经济发展的内在动力机理,减少对外商直接投资的过度依赖。

This article uses 1991-2012 data to construct VAR model, analyzes impulse response and variance decomposition to explore the interaction of FDI and the development of service industry in Fujian. The result shows that FDI and service industry in Fujian have strong explanatory ability, negative influence of FDI on the service development is greater than positive one, and the development of service industry can increase FDI. The policy implies that Fujian should increase support for service industry, select proper foreign investment, use the expansion effect of service industry to cultivate intrinsic economic motivation mechanism, and reduce over-reliance on FDI.