中国海洋捕捞渔业温室气体排放时序分析与因素分解

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND FACTOR DECOMPOSITION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS OF MARINE FISHING IN CHINA

综合渔获量规模、作业方式结构、作业方式能耗强度和燃油排放系数等因素对温室气体排放的影响,在对2006-2011年海洋捕捞渔业温室气体排放核算和时序分析基础上,利用LMDI方法对温室气体排放进行了因素分解。结果表明：海洋捕捞渔业温室气体排放量呈现出稳定的增长趋势,平均每年温室气体排放量增长26.66万t;拖网、刺网两种作业方式产生的温室气体占相应年份海洋捕捞渔业温室气体排放量的比重最大,约占80%,且温室效应最强。渔获量规模效应是驱动我国海洋捕捞渔业温室气体排放的最主要因素。建议通过采取＂捕捞配额＂或实施较长期的禁渔休渔制度来降低渔获量总量,不仅有利于保护海洋渔业资源,还能减少温室气体排放,也可以通过建立海洋捕捞生态补偿制度的方式来调整作业方式结构向低温室气体排放转变。

Marine capture fishery is an important component of the marine economy, and it plays an important role in promotingthe development of marine economy. However, it should be recognized that marine capture fishery is a high energy consumption industry of marine economy. Low-carbon fishery becomes a new development direction, and greenhouse gasemission of marine capture fishery becomes a hot issue. A decomposition model based on the extended Kaya identity and accounting analysis onthegreenhouse gas emissions of marine capture fishery wasestablished from 2006 to 2011, and impacts fromeatches scale, fishing methods structure, fishing methods energy intensity and fuel emission faetorwere examined in detail with the LMDI method. The results showed that greenhouse gas emissions from marine capture fisheries had a steady growth trend, the average annual growth in greenhouse gas emissions was 266 600 tons, and the average rate was 1.54%. Greenhouse gases from trawl and gill netsaccounted for about 80% of the total, and the greenhouse effect was the strongest. The ratio of GHG emissions and capture production of different marine capture fishery methods showed the following characteristics from 2006 to 2011. Firstly, marine capture fisheriesgreenhouse effectof the different fishingmethodscould be divided into three levels, the high GHG emissions effect level, the medium GHG emissions effect level andthe low GHG emissions effect level. The high GHG emissions effect levelincluded two fishing methods of trawl and gill nets, and the ratio was greater than 1.5. The medium GHG emissions effect levelincludedfishing tackle, seine and other methods, andthe ratio was between 0.8 and 1.5. The low GHG emissions effect levelonly includedstow net, and the ratio was less than 0.8. Secondly, the greenhouse effect of fishing tackle showed a growth trend from 2006 to 2011, and the ratio reached to 1.39 in 2011, which was the highest greenhouse effect. Thirdly, the other fishing methods of greenhouse effect remained stable. The results of effect of decomposition factors of marine capture fishery from 2006 to 2011, showed that the capture production scaleeffect was 63.20% ,fishing methods in energy effect was 24.65%, and the fishing methods structural effect was 12.14~, so the marine capture production scale was the most important factor driving greenhouse gas emissions of marine capture fisheries in China. Finally, some suggestions were put forward, such as taking fishing quota or implementing longer-term moratorium systemto reduce the total capture production, which is not only beneficial to the protection of the marine fishery resources, but alsoto reducing greenhouse gas emissions. And the structure of the fishing method should be adjusted to low greenhouse gas emissions by establishing marine capture fishery ecological compensation.