三峡库区典型生态屏障区农户向外转移意愿及影响因素分析

FARMER'S MIGRATION WILLINGNESS AND INFLUENCING FACTOR ANALYSIS IN THE TYPICAL THREE GORGES ECOLOGICAL BARRIER ZONE

向区外转移一定数量的过载人口是三峡生态屏障区土地生态功能建设的前提。基于农户访谈与问卷调查,对三峡库区典型生态屏障区内的涪陵、奉节、秭归、夷陵4区县的农户转移意愿进行了抽样调查,并采用Logistic回归模型对影响农户转移意愿的因素进行了分析。结果显示:61.3%的被调查户愿意转移,影响农户转移意愿的主要因素为户主文化水平、家庭非农收入比重、人均耕地面积、村社距集镇距离和村社环境,户主的文化水平越高、家庭非农收入比重越大、人均耕地面积越多,所处村社距集镇的距离越远、环境越差,则农户向外转移的意愿就越强烈。另外,地区因素对农户的转移意愿也存在一定影响,4个样本区县中农户转移意愿强度从大到小依次排列为秭归、涪陵、夷陵和奉节,其愿意转移的发生比率(Odds Ratio)为5.047∶1.637∶1.166∶1。为了激励屏障区农户实行自愿转移,促进三峡后续工作规划的顺利实施,建议政府根据影响因素分析结果选择目标转移人群,并制定完善的人口转移政策以加强农户对转移后的经济收入、生产生活环境改善的预期,从而增强转移意愿。

Transferring a certain number of overload populations to outside is the premise of land ecological construction in the Three Gorges ecological barrier zone. Based on a household questionnaire survey and interviews, sampling investigation to farmer＇s migration willingness at Fuling, Fengjie, Zigui, and Yiling counties of the Three Gorges ecological barrier region were undertaken, and Logistic regression model was applied to analyze the main factors influencing farmers＇ migration decisions, the results showed that. householder culture level, family non-agricultural income proportion, per capita area of farmland, distance between the village and town, and village＇s environment are the main factors affecting farmers migration willingness. The higher the householder＇s culture level, the greater proportion of non-agricultural income, the bigger the per capita area of farmland, the farther of the distance between village and town, and the worse living environment, then the farmer will have the more strong migration willingness. In addition, the district factor is also affecting farmers＇ migration willingness, farmers＇ migration willingness in Zigui County is significantly stronger than that in Fuling, Yiling and Fengjie, and the odds ratio of the four counties is 5. 049 ： 1. 638 ： 1. 166 ： 1. In order to encourage farmers＇ migration willingness and promote the successful implementation of the Three Gorge ecological construction plan, government should select target migration populations according to the influence factors, and make the optimal migration policy to enhance farmers＇ expectations to income, production and living environment, thereby strengthening the migration willingness.