劳动力流出对当地经济发展的影响

The Relationship Between Massive Labor Outflow and Local Economic Development

在对劳动力大规模流出与当地经济增长进行理论诠释的基础上,结合生产函数模型,运用1982-2010年的实际数据,对劳动力大规模迁出、政府干预与当地区域经济增长的关系进行了实证研究.结果表明劳动力大规模流出对当地经济增长具有显著的负效应,新古典模型揭示的劳动力由落后区域向发达区域流动能缩小区域经济差异、促进区域经济增长收敛,与中国的经济发展事实并不相符:一方面,对区域经济而言,资本投入不变,劳动的减少会使得经济总量低于其潜在水平;另一方面,劳动力大规模流出劣化了当地人力资本结构,同样削弱当地经济增长.

Based on a theoretical interpretation of the relationship between massive outflow of Chinese labor force and local economic development ,this paper uses the actual data from 1982 to 2010 to carry out an empirical research about the relationship among labor mass emigration ,government intervention and local economic growth .The results show that large‐scale labor outflow has a significant negative effect on local economic growth .The assertion by the new classical model that if labor force flows from the backward are‐as to the developed areas ,the regional economy difference will be narrowed and the regional economic grow th convergence will be promoted does not conform to the reality of China＆#39;s economic development .On the one hand ,for the regional economy ,even if capital investment is unchanged ,a reduction in labor will make the economic aggregate lower than its potential level .On the other hand ,massive labor outflow dete‐riorates the local human capital structure and weakens the local economic grow th as well .