摘要
提出一种基于电力系统风险评估的灾害预警量化算法。该算法首先根据电力系统元件的历史故障数据和天气数据计算电力系统的事故发生概率;其后通过效用函数进行评价,构建事故后果严重度模型;然后根据事故发生概率和事故后果严重度模型计算风险指标;最后基于风险指标集和由指标标度法确定的指标权重,算得综合风险评估值,并对该综合评价指标值与各等级电网安全风险的取值范围进行比较以确定电力系统当前的安全风险等级,从而达到预警目的。
A quantitative algorithm of disaster warning based on risk assessment of power systems is provided in this paper. In this algorithm,the probabilities of accidents occurred in power system components are firstly calculated according to the history fault and weather data,and a severity model of accident consequence is built by using the utility function. Then,risk indexes are calculated with the accident probabilities and the severity model of accident consequences. Finally,based on the set of indexes and their weights determined by the index scale method,a comprehensive risk assessment value is obtained,and the current security risk level of the power system is determined by comparison of the comprehensive risk assessment value with ranges of different levels＇ security risk values.
出处
《南方电网技术》
北大核心
2015年第5期53-58,共6页
Southern Power System Technology
基金
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)项目(2012AA050201)~~
关键词
风险评估
灾害预警
量化算法
指标权重
估值
风险等级
risk assessment
disaster warning
quantitative algorithm
index weight
assessment value
risk level
