基于可靠性理论的事件树分析方法研究

Study on event tree analysis method based on reliability theory

事件树分析过程中事件树的编制和分析方法缺乏系统性,导致实际运用中事件树的编制缺乏可操作性。从目标系统的选择、环节事件逻辑关系的确定、定量分析中基本数据的来源和确定方法等三个问题进行了系统研究,并以可靠性的相关理论为基础,提出"从控制和影响初始事件发展演化的角度,调查分析对初始事件做出响应的安全功能,按系统工作原理对目标系统进行重构,构建目标系统的功能结构图,画出系统的可靠性框图"入手,对"传统的事件树绘制程序"进行修正,解决了事件树分析过程中目标系统的选择、环节事件逻辑关系的确定以及定量分析基本数据的确定方法等问题。修正后的方案对实现事件树的正确编制和系统分析逻辑更清晰,操作指导性更强。

As the compilation and analysis methods of event tree lack systematicness, it lacks operability when compiling an event tree analysis in practical application. In order to solve this problem, three problems including the choose of target system, the determination of logical relationship in the linking event, the source and determination method of basic data in the quantitative analysis, were systematically studied. Based on the reliability theory, a method which can solve the three problems mentioned above was put forward. The method is to investigate and analyze the safety function making response to the initial event from the point of controlling and influencing the evo- lution of the initial event, and to reconstruct the target system by the working principle of the system, then to construct the function structure diagram of target system and draw rehability diagram of the system. Finally, the tradi- tional drawing program of event tree was corrected by the above results. It showed that the corrected program had a stronger logicality and feasibility.