基于群组决策和模糊层次分析法的城市公共安全评价

Evaluation of urban public safety based on group decision-making and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

为科学地评估城市公共安全现状,根据我国城市公共安全的特点及国家城市安全规划的相关要求,从能力和脆弱性两方面构建了多层次多指标的城市公共安全评价指标体系。通过群组决策和模糊层次分析法,针对不同的指标考虑专家的个体权威和专家群体意见的一致性,引入综合重要度将专家个体判断矩阵集结成群体关于指标权重的判断矩阵,通过群体判断矩阵计算各评价指标的权重。最后根据可拓学理论构建多级可拓评价模型对某市公共安全灾害要素子系统进行评价,得出其安全状况属较安全等级,同时也证明该方法在城市公共安全评价中有较好的适用性。

In order to scientifically evaluate the current status of urban public safety, an evaluation index system with multi-level and multi-index was established to evaluate public safety from the perspectives of capability and vulnerability according to the characteristics of urban public safety in China and the related requirements of the national urban public safety planning. Through group decision-making and FAHP, the personnel authoritativeness of experts and the consistency of expert group opinions were considered in terms of different indicators. By introducing into the overall importance, the individual judgment matrices of each expert were assembled into group judgment matrix with respect to index weight, and the weights of each evaluation indicator were calculated through group judgment matrix. Finally, according to the extension theory, the multi-level extension evaluation model was constructed to assess the subsystem of urban public safety hazard element in a certain city, and the safety situation of the city was concluded to be relatively safe grade. It also proved that this method has relatively good applicability to the evaluation of urban public safety.