基于突变模型的北京地区上市公司物流风险评估

Logistics Risk Evaluation on Listed Enterprises in Beijing Based on Catastrophe Model

基于突变模型,从经营效益和存货效率两个角度选取11个指标,并以此构建了企业物流风险评估指标体系,利用北京地区制造业上市公司2009-2013年的年度报告数据,评估了北京地区制造业上市公司物流风险总体水平。结果表明,北京地区制造业上市公司企业物流风险水平虽有短暂波动,但总体上处于高风险等级,因而需要重视对企业物流风险的防范,为企业物流风险评估提供了新的思路和方法。

In this paper, based on the catastrophe model, we selected eleven indexes from the perspectives of management benefit and inventoryefficiency, in accordancewith which, weestablished thelogisticsrisk evaluation indexsystem. Usingtheannual report data of the listed manufacture enterprises from 2009 to 2013 in Beijing, we evaluated their logistics risk level. The findings indicated that the logistics risk level was generallyhigh, henceweproposed new methodsand approachestolower therisks.