信息化与道路运输规模经济关系的VAR模型实证分析

Study on VAR Model of Relationship between Informatization and Highway Transportation Scale Economy

为应对当前物流业多采取粗放式发展模式所带来的一系列问题,创新性地运用VAR模型对信息化和道路运输规模经济关系进行分析。分析结果显示,信息化对于物流业中道路运输规模经济的实现有着长期显著的拉动作用,信息化水平的高低是影响道路运输规模经济程度的格兰杰原因,而道路运输规模经济对信息化发展的促进作用却较微弱。指出应该以各种先进信息技术大发展为契机,加快道路运输规模经济效益的实现,从而实现物流行业的跨越式发展。

In this paper, we used the VAR model to analyze the relationship between informatization and the highway transportation scale economy, found that the informatization process had a long- term significant pulling effect on the emergence of the highway transportation scale economy, the informatization level was the Granger cause that influenced the extent of the highway transport scale economy, but the highway transportation scale economy had diminutive effect on the informatization process, and at the end, pointed out that we should take advantage of the various advanced information technologies to accelerate the realization of the highway transportation scale economy.