中国房价上涨真的提高了离婚率吗——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

Does Chinese Housing Prices Really Rise Divorce Rate——An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data

自1998年下半年中国实行住房分配货币化改革以来,中国的房地产市场逐渐建立并发展起来,伴随着房地产市场的发展,2003年开始房价过快上涨的问题也日益显现。基于1999—2010年31个省区面板数据分阶段实证分析中国房价对离婚率的影响,结果发现:整个样本期间,中国房价提高了离婚率,但并不显著。2002年前,房价显著地降低了离婚率,2002年后,房价提高了离婚率,但并不显著。整个样本期间,东中西部地区房价均提高了离婚率,其中东部地区提升显著。2002年前,三大地区房价均降低了离婚率,其中中部地区提升显著,2002年后,三大地区房价均提高了离婚率,其中东部地区提升显著。

China has adopted the currency reform of housing allocation system since the second half of 1998,China＇s real estate market has gradually established and developed,along with the development of the real estate market,housing prices rose too fast since 2003. The article has empirical analyzed influence on Chinese housing prices to the divorce rate based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China,the results showed that Chinese housing prices increased divorce rate in the whole sample period,but it is not significant,Chinese housing prices have significantly dropped divorce rate before 2002,Chinese housing prices have increased divorce rate after 2002,but it is not significant; in the whole sample period,housing prices have increased divorce rate in the eastern,central and western region,in which the eastern region is significant,housing prices have dropped divorce rate in three regions before 2002,in which the central region is significant,housing prices have increased divorce rate in three regions after 2002,in which the eastern region is significant.