城乡收入差距、经济增长与犯罪率

The Relationship between Rural- urban Income Gap,Economic Growth and Crime Rate

改革开放之后,中国经济快速发展,城乡居民收入不断提高,与此同时,城乡、城市与乡村内部收入差距不断扩大,农村剩余劳动力大量涌入城市。在城市化进程加快的过程中,社会犯罪率水平,尤其是刑事犯罪率也不断攀升。基于中国1986—2012年时间序列数据实证检验发现:不管在短期还是长期中,刑事犯罪率与经济增长之间都存在倒U型关系,城乡收入差距越大,社会刑事犯罪率水平越高。此外,乡村流动人口率、失业率、城市人口密度与破案率对刑事犯罪率也存在影响。因此,中央与地方政府应建立完善的城乡社会保障、医疗卫生、养老保险与劳动力市场制度,降低城市准入门槛,缩小城乡与城市内部收入差距。同时,要重视犯罪率与经济增长之间的客观规律,在经济发展的同时更注意降低社会犯罪率水平。

Chinese economic and resident income continued to improve since opening up,but the rural- urban,rural inner and urban inner income gap became lager,rural surplus labor run into cities,urbanization developed fastly,the social crime rate also improved quickly,especially the criminal rate. This paper based on 1986- 2012 time series data,through empirical analysis found criminal rate have a inverted U- shaped with economic growth in the short and long term,rural- urban income gap,has a positive correlation with criminal rate. Moreover,rural population turnover rate,unemployment,urban population density and detection rate influence criminal rate. In order to decrease the rural- urban income gap,local government should improve rural- urban the social security,health,endowment insurance and labor market system,lowering the threshold into city. But it should recognize that the criminal rate has a objective relationship with economic growth,what we should do is paying more attention to reduce the total criminal rate with the economic development.