金融危机对国内不同行业的冲击及影响——基于亚洲金融危机和全球金融危机的对比分析

The Impact of Financial Crisis to China Industries——Evidence From The Asian Financial Crisis and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis

本文利用《中国统计年鉴》、《中国高新技术产业年鉴》及部分财经类网络数据补充,对比研究了1998年和2008年两次金融危机对我国不同行业产生的影响。利用描述性统计和VAR实证分析,考察金融危机是如何通过不同传导渠道对行业经济产生了冲击。结论显示:(1)全球金融危机给国内各行业带来的影响比亚洲金融危机范围广、程度深且持续时间更长。(2)两次金融危机分别通过国际资本流动、价格和财富收入这三种不同渠道对行业产生了显著性的且有差异的影响。(3)在亚洲金融危机中,主要传导渠道是财富收入,且主要受到冲击的行业是餐饮业、工业和金融业,而全球性金融危机则通过三种不同渠道对各个行业产生较为显著的影响。

Based on the data from China Statistical Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook China High-tech Industry Yearbook and some relevant finance websites, the paper aim to research the influence brought by the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis with a comparative analysis. VAR model provide a helpful tool for an empirical approve to testify whether this impact is transmitted by foreign demand, price of export products or foreign investment. Results show that the Global Financial Crisis brings a more severe and persistent impact to China industry than its predecessor. The mechanism of influence to industry differs from each other in the two crises. Among which, the mechanism of income played a key role in food, industrial and finance industry in the Asian Financial Crisis, while all the three channels did affect all the industries on the full scale in the 2008 Financial Crisis.