基于可靠性的油气管道系统维修策略研究

A research on maintenance strategy of oil and gas pipeline system based on reliability

基于蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)模拟法计算的缺陷失效概率,结合工程实际提出管段失效率模型,为可靠性分析提供基础。以管道系统作为研究对象,建立了n段管道串联、两段管道并联及两管道并联再与另一管道串联三种基本管道系统下的可用度模型,用同一模型解决了不同管道系统的可用度问题。在此基础上引入成本因素,综合考虑安全与经济两方面因素,提出管道系统最优维修策略,为油气管线维修方案的制定及完整性管理提供决策支持。通过工程实例分析,表明上述模型具有实际可操作性。

Based on failure probability of defect calculated by the Monte Carlo simulation method,pipe failure rate model was proposed to provide the basis for reliability analysis,combined with engineering practice.Considering pipeline system as research object,it established Availability Model of serial repairable systems with n pipelines,parallel system with two parts,and series-parallel system with two parallel parts and one serial part,thus availability of various pipeline systems was solved by the same model.Based on availability model,cost factor was introduced to consider both security and economic factors comprehensively,and optimal maintenance strategy of pipeline sys-tem was proposed,to provide decision support for making maintenance program of onshore oil and gas pipeline and integrity management.The application on a subject indicated that the model is operable.