基于案例推理的消防应急决策方法

An approach for emergency decision-making of fire based on case-based reasoning

针对突发事件有效应急方案生成的问题,提出一种考虑主体偏好的决策方法。依据决策主体对正负属性距离的偏好,计算应急案例的属性相似度,通过指数函数对属性相似度进行转换。根据案例相似度最大化和特征根法,构建求解应急案例相似度问题的优化模型,通过求解优化模型获得属性权重。通过计算案例的综合相似度前景值,得到与目标案例最相似的案例。通过一个高层建筑火灾的算例分析说明该方法的有效性和可行性。

With regard to the problem of generating effective emergency alternative,a decision method considering agent＇s preference was proposed.The similarities of attribute were calculated based on the decision agent＇s preference for the positive and negative attributes distance.The attribute similarity was transformed through the attribute similarities.A double objective optimization model of solving the problem of the emergency similarity is developed according to the maximum of the case similarity and eigenvector method.The weights of attributes were obtained by solving the model.And then the most similar case was gotten through the calculation of the comprehensive case similarity prospect value.Finally,a numerical example of a high-building fire was used to illustrate the validity of the proposed method.