我国电力消费影响因素分析

Analysis on Influence Factor on Electricity Consumption in Our Country

为了找出推动我国电力消费增长的主要影响因素,探索减缓我国电力消费增长的方法,基于1995—2010年我国电力消费相关数据,运用对数平均D氏指数技术(logarithmic mean division index,LMDI)分解方法定量分析不同因素对我国电力消费增长的贡献度。结果表明:经济规模效应是促进电力消费增长的主要因素,1995—2010年对我国电力消费增长的累计贡献度达到了117.76%,收入效应次之,累计贡献度为16.53%;生产部门技术进步有效抑制了电力消费增长,居民部门技术进步的抑制作用相对较小;产业结构优化的节能效应没有充分表现出来。因此,大力推进产业结构的优化升级,加大科研力度,推广高效节能产品,成为抑制电力消费增长的主要途径。

In order to find out main influence factor on promoting increase of electricity consumption in our country and probe method for slowing down increase of electricity consumption in our country,based on relevant data of electricity con-sumption in our country from 1995 to 2010,quantity analysis on contribution degree of various factors for increase of elec-tricity consumption in our country was conducted by using decomposition method of logarithmic mean division index（LM-DI）.The result indicates economic scale effect is the main factor to promote increase of electricity consumption which reached 1 1 7.76% of accumulated contribution degree for electricity consumption increase from 1995 to 2010 in our country, the second influence factor is income which was of 16.53% accumulated contribution degree.Technical progress of produc-tion department effectively restricts increase of electricity consumption while restriction of technical progress of resident de-partment is relatively small.In addition,energy saving effect of optimization on industrial structure is not completely shown.Thus,principal pathways of restricting increase of electricity consumption are greatly promoting optimization update of industrial structure,intensifying scientific research and popularizing high-effective and energy conservation products.