期望差距与创始人离任方式选择:基于中国家族上市公司的分析

Aspiration Gap and Founder Turnover Pattern Choice:Analysis Based on Family-owned Listed Companies in China

创始人采取何种方式退出企业,激进式离任还是渐进式退出,这仍是一个没有解决的重要问题。根据前景理论与企业行为理论,文章认为企业所处的期望差距状态将直接影响创始人离任方式的选择。文章基于中国家族上市公司的数据,主要得到以下结论:(1)不同的离任方式所隐含的经营风险存在差异。当企业的实际业绩低于期望水平时,随着期望落差的增加,创始人更有可能采取风险相对较低的渐进式退出方式;而当企业的实际业绩高于期望水平时,随着业绩的不断增加,创始人采取风险相对较高的激进式离任方式的可能性更大。(2)随着业绩的增加,创始人采取激进式离任方式的可能性增大,这种效应在期望顺差状态下比期望落差状态下更强。(3)继任者来源会影响创始人的离任方式,在期望落差状态下,家族外部继任者比内部继任者更有可能导致创始人选择激进式离任。

Whether founders prefer to choose radical turnover or gradual turnover is still an important question that is not resolved. In the light of prospect theory and behavioral theory of firms, this paper suggests that aspiration gap has direct influences on founder turnover pattern choice. Based on the data of Chinese family-owned listed companies, it comes to the main conclusions as follows： firstly, business risks vary between turnover patterns; when firms＇ real performance is below the level of aspiration, founders are more likely to select gradual turnover with relatively lower business risk as the aspiration gap widens; when firms＇ real performance is over the level of aspiration, founders are more likely to select radical turnover with relatively higher business risk as the performance constantly increasesl secondly, with the increase in performance, the possibility of the adoption of radical turnover rises, which is stronger in aspiration surplus sate than in aspiration gap state; thirdly, origin of successor affects founder turnover pattern choice; when firm performance is below the level of aspiration, successor outside the family is more likely to lead to the adoption of radical turnover by founders.