粮食安全与农业面源污染--以农地禀赋对化肥投入强度的影响为例

Food Security and Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution:Taking the Impact of Agricultural Land Endowments on Fertilizer Use Intensity as an Example

随着世界人口的不断增长,传统农业背景下的粮食安全与农业面源污染的冲突越来越激烈。文章利用2002—2009年农地禀赋与化肥投入强度的72国面板数据,运用动态面板数据方法研究了粮食安全状况对农业面源污染的影响机制。结果表明:(1)农地禀赋既会直接影响化肥投入强度,也会通过农业保护和粮食进口间接地影响化肥投入强度,其中,农地禀赋通过农业保护途径降低了化肥投入强度,而通过粮食进口途径提高了化肥投入强度;(2)发达国家与发展中国家的影响机制存在差别,发达国家的农业保护所产生的间接效应更明显,而发展中国家的农地禀赋所产生的直接效应更明显。文章为我国政府在制定粮食安全政策和农业环境保护政策方面提供了启示和借鉴。

With the constant increase in population in the world, the conflict between food security and agricultural non-point source pollution in the background of traditional agriculture is more and more fierce. Based on the panel data of agricultural land endowments and fertilizer use intensity in 72 countries from 2002 to 2009, this paper uses dynamic estimation to analyze the impact of food security on agricultural non-point source pollution. It arrives at the results as follows, firstly, agricultural land endowments have not only direct impact on fertilizer use intensity, but also indirect impact via agricultural protection and food import; agricultural land endowments lead to the decrease in fertilizer use intensity via agricultural protection and the increase in fertilizer use intensity via net import of food; secondly, the impacts are different between developed and developing countries： the indirect impact resulting from agricultural protection in developed countries is more significant while the direct impact resulting from agricultural land endowments in developing countries is more significant. It provides implications and reference for the formulation of food security policy and agricultural environment protection policy in China.