诺贝尔科学奖授奖时滞研究

Research on Time-Lags for Nobel Prizes in Science

通过统计1901～2013年诺贝尔科学奖相关数据研究诺贝尔科学奖授奖时滞的变化规律，对比分析以获得奖项的先后次序和获奖成果完成先后次序两种思路，认为应以后者研究百余年来诺贝尔科学奖授奖时滞现象。研究结果表明，与现在广为人们接受的规律相反，近年来，诺贝尔科学奖获奖成果完成年龄和因此获得奖项的年龄变化幅度较小，诺贝尔科学奖授奖时滞不升反降。现代科学发展水平和仪器制造水平加快了重大科技突破获得社会认可的速度，加速了科技创新向社会生产力的转化。诺贝尔科学奖授奖过程中存在着典型的路径依赖。

There are two different chronological orders in related studies, based on the time when the prize was awarded and when the research was done. In this research, we believe that the latter should be more important and correct according to the study of time-lags for Nobel Prize in science during the period 1901-2013. Our finding is opposite to the common senses. On the one hand, the changes of ages at which scientist finished their outstanding research leads to Nobel and the ages they received the prizes are not that considerable in recent years. On the other hand, the time-lags for Nobel Prize in science has become shorter over time. These results suggest that the development of modern science and the laboratory equipments boosts the testing speed and the transformation efficiency of recent scientific breakthroughs and technical innovations. An outstanding path dependence exists on the given Nobel Prizes in science.