1962-2010年玛纳斯流域耕地景观的时空变化分析

Spatio-temporal change analysis of cultivated land in Manas drainage basin during 1962-2010

为分析近几十年来玛纳斯流域水资源开发密集开发条件下耕地景观的时空变化,采用1962年、1977年、1989年、2000年和2010年5期遥感影像进行土地利用制图,并针对耕地信息,分别从时间变化过程、类型转化关系、空间格局等方面分析了近50 a来面积变化的时空特征,从气候变化与灌区建设的角度探讨了水资源空间配置与耕地扩张的关系。结果表明:1)近50 a来耕地和建设用地面积持续增加,未利用地、湿地和冰川雪地持续减少,草地在前20年增加、后30年减少;土地利用的变化程度总体上由剧烈逐渐趋于缓和;2)整体上耕地的变化由双向转化期逐渐过渡到单向转入期,草地和未利用地为各期主要转入类型,建设用地和草地为主要转出类型,各期的转入面积远大于转出面积,耕地总面积持续、快速增长。3)耕地扩张的重心由城市周边转向荒漠地区、由上游地区逐渐转移到下游,先后在昌吉、呼图壁、沙湾县、主要河流两岸及北部荒漠地区扩张,耕地景观也由杂乱破碎转的斑块转为成片连续的耕地带,耕地在景观中的优势进一步加强。4)耕地面积的扩张与降水和河川径流量的增加有关,耕地的扩张速度与方向与水库的空间分布及建成时间有明显的相关性,水库及灌渠建成的后一个时段往往会伴随一轮耕地的快速扩张。流域内水资源开发的潜力不足,已不能满足耕地的大规模扩张。适当控制耕地规模、优化用水结构、提高水资源利用效率,是集约化农业发展、生态环境保护的关键。

Cultivated land is an important indicator of landscape changes driven by human activities. Mapping the spatio-temporal changes of cultivated lands will help us to understand its corresponding environmental and ecological changes in their downstream areas. The Manas drainage basin is the key area of agricultural region in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains. However, the drastic farmland reclamation in the last 50 years makes irrigation water increasing rapidly, leading to environmental degradation in the downstream of the Manas River. In this paper, remote sensing and GIS technologies are used to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of farmland changes in the Manas drainage basin under the condition of intense soil-water utilization. Firstly, remote sensing images in 1962, 1977, 1989, 2000 and 2010 are applied to map land use changes with the cognition classification software and manual edition. Then the temporal process and spatial pattern of land cover changes are analyzed by geo-statistics and landscape analysis. On the temporal scale, the cultivated land changes and its mutual transition relationships with other land types are analyzed with areal ratio and transition matrix methods; on the spatial scale, GIS spatial analysis tool and landscape class level index are used to describe the characteristics of farmland expansion or shrinking changes in different regions and different land patches. Finally, hydrological data and irrigation construction data are used to explain the impact of climate change and human activities on the farmland landscape. The results show that：（1） The overall land use changes of the Manas drainage basin in the last 50 years are as follows： cultivated land and built-up areas increase continuously, while the unutilized land, wetland and snow/glacier have been decreasing steadily; grassland area is increasing in the former 20 years and then decreasing gradually in the last 30 years; the intensity of land use changes keeps stable after dramatic changes.（2） The overall cultivated land transformations have shifted from outward and inward transformations to single inward transformation; in inward land types, grassland and unutilized land are the main inward land types to farmland, and woodland and wetland take larger percentages in the first 20 years, while less percentages in the later 30 years; in outward land types, built-up land and grassland are the main outward land types, and grassland and unutilized land have larger percentages in the former 20 years due to cultivated land degradation; the total area of inward land types far exceeds than that of the outward land types, and the cultivated land area is steadily increasing in the last 50 years.（3） The focus of cultivated land expansion has shifted from the margins of cities to desert regions, and the newly-increased farmland gradually from the upstream to the downstream; cultivated land expansion firstly begins at the Changji Hutubi and Manas County in the former 20 years, then shifts to Shawan County, the river＇s surrounding areas and northern deserts; the cultivated landscapes are characterized from discrete and messy pieces into continuous land patches, so the advantage of cultivated landscape is increasing, while the landscape diversity and heterogeneity are decreasing due to land parcel combinations.（4） The increasing precipitation and runoff in the Manas drainage basin provide more water resource for cultivated land reclamation, and reservoir and irrigation channel construction have positive effects on spatial expansion of the cultivated land; when reservoirs and channels are built up, cultivated land will expand correspondingly in a rapid rate in the next decade, and hence the spatio-temporal processes of farmland expansion have high relations with the irrigation facilities.（5） The increasing water resource induced by climate change cannot keep up with the increasing speed of the farmland, and water resource is in the state of over exploitation; measures must be taken to reduce the amount of irrigated water, so as to improve ecological environments in the downstream of the Manas River.