我国水资源“农转非”驱动因素的时空尺度效应

Scale Effect on Driving Factors of Agriculture-to-Urban Water Transfers in China

优化配置水资源,实现利用效益最大化,是我国水资源管理的关键议题。论文选取影响水资源"农转非"的9个因素,采用2003—2010年省际面板数据,运用岭回归法测度各因素作用程度的时空差异。结果表明:1时间尺度上,产业结构变化、城镇化发展是主要推动因素,综合作用达0.53;随时间推移,各因素的作用差异较大。2空间尺度上,全国范围内,产业结构变化和城镇化发展的正向作用是0.32和0.21;极度缺水区,产业结构变化、生态环境改善、节灌率和人均水资源量的正向作用明显;中度缺水区,产业结构变化的影响系数是0.56;轻度缺水区,城镇化发展和有效灌溉率的影响程度为0.33和0.30;GDP是丰沛区的关键促进因素。3从时空尺度看,水资源利用比较收益是主要约束因素。4各因素在不同时点、不同区域的作用方向也不一致。

Optimizing and maximally utilizing water resources are key issues of water resource management. The agriculture-to-urban water transfer has diverse features in different spatial and temporal scales, and the effect of influencing factors changes variously on different scales.In this study, nine factors influencing agriculture-to-urban water utilization are chosen, and their degrees of influence are analyzed by using ridge regression based on provincial panel data from 2003 to 2010. The result shows that the degree and direction of each factors influencing on the agriculture-to-urban transfer are not entirely consistent at different spatial and temporal scales. From the aspect of time scale, the industrial structure transformation and the degree of urbanization are always the main factors, and the comprehensive impact is 0.53. As time goes on, the effects of different factors show great diversity. From the aspect of space scale, the industrial restructuring and the level of urbanization have significant positive impacts on the national scale, which are 0.32 and 0.21 respectively. In highly water shortage areas, the factors having extremely positive impacts include the industrial structure transformation, eco-environment improvement, irrigation saving rate and per capita water resources. In serious water shortage areas, the positive effects of factors are not very different. In medium water deficient areas,the industrial structure transformation is the major driver, and its impact is 0.56. The minor water deficient areas are influenced mainly by industrial structure transformation, urbanization, effective irrigation rate, population and irrigation saving rate. The key factors in the water resources abundant regions are GDP, urbanization and water using comparative income. From the temporal and spatial scales, the change of comparison income of utilization in water resources is a major constraint factor. It is not completely same of each factor＇s driving directions to water transfers in different areas and times.