辽宁沿海经济带水资源边际效益测度及影响因素分析

The Marginal Benefit of Water Resource Measure and Its Influence Factors in Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt

水资源边际效益的研究对于辽宁沿海经济带可持续发展具有重要意义。基于边际效益的理论,将水资源作为生产要素,利用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数对辽宁沿海经济带2002—2011年的水资源利用边际效益进行了测算及时空差异分析,结果显示三次产业水资源利用边际效益逐年提高,农业、工业、第三产业用水边际效益多年平均值分别为4.11、82.30、154.93元/m3,农业用水的边际效益明显低于工业和第三产业用水。在此基础上构建多元线性回归模型,探求水资源利用边际效益的关键性影响因素,得到农业用水边际效益影响因素:农业万元产值用水量、政府影响力、单位面积产量、化肥使用量,其中农业万元产值用水量对于农业用水边际效益的影响程度最强且为负向作用;工业用水边际效益影响因素:工业万元产值用水量、政府影响力、市场需求程度、工业废水排放达标量,且工业万元产值用水量对于工业用水边际效益的影响最大且为负向作用;第三产业用水边际效益影响因素:第三产业万元产值用水量、政府影响力、城市化水平、人均公园绿地面积,第三产业万元产值用水量和人均公园绿地面积对于第三产业用水边际效益影响程度较高,第三产业万元产值用水量为负向作用,人均公园绿地面积作用为正向作用。

Water shortage has become a bottleneck to restrict the sustainable development of China＇s economy, especially in the Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt（LCEB）. So the research on marginal effect of water resources is important and necessary for the sustainable development of LCEB. The theory of marginal effect is the cornerstone of this paper. To quantitatively analyze the impact of water resources on the regional output value based the three industries,the paper took water resource as the factors of production. And, in this study, the Cobb-Douglas function was employed in the computation of marginal revenues of water in LCEB over the period of 2002-2011. The results indicated that, in 2002-2011, the marginal effect of three industries increased year after year, and the marginal effects of agriculture, industry and the tertiary industry water was 4.11, 82.30 and 154.93 yuan/m^3 respectively. The marginal effect of agriculture water was significantly less than that of industry and the tertiary industry water. Due to the different nature of the three industries, their influence factors are abundant and varied. To investigate the key factors of marginal effect for water resources, multiple linear regression model was built based on the results. Our model showed that the influence factors exactly revealed the impact of marginal effect of water resources, and the factors had both positive and negative effects. The results showed that： the factors that affected agricultural water were the water consumption of agricultural output value per ten thousand yuan, the influence of government, the yield per unit area, and the amount of fertilizer consumption; the factors affected marginal effect of industry were the water consumption of industrial output value per ten thousand yuan,the amount of industrial wastewater emission, the influence of government, and the degree of market demand; the factors affect marginal effect of the tertiary industrial water were the water consumption of the tertiary industry output value per ten thousand yuan, the level of urbanization, the influence of government, and park green area per capita.