基于组合模型的安徽省城镇化演进对碳排放影响极限研究

Impact Limit of Urbanization Evolution on Carbon Emission in Anhui Province Based on Combined Model

探索城镇化演进对碳排放影响最小的极限时刻,对制定碳减排规划及政策具有重要指导意义。从碳源、碳汇两层面,对安徽省1995—2011年碳排放进行了测算;运用KAYA恒等式及因素分解模型,考察了城镇化发展产生的碳排放量;借鉴经济学边际理论及求导方法,构造了城镇化演进的边际碳排放变化率模型,并据此测算了研究时序边际碳排放变化率;借助Excel软件,通过作散点图并添加趋势线方法,对边际碳排放变化率变化趋势进行了刻画,采用二次函数求极值方法,对城镇化演进碳排放影响的极限时刻进行了探索,结果表明:1安徽省碳排放量由1995年的2 182.39×104t增至2011年的10 120.20×104t,年均增幅10.06%;2研究时序内,城镇化演进产生的碳排放总量为3 602.78×104t,年均225.17×104t,年际变化较大;3城镇化演进边际碳排放变化率拟合曲线既非U型也非倒U型,在时间维度依存关系不明显;4安徽省城镇化发展对碳排放影响呈乘幂函数关系,城镇化演进的增量效应显著。基于研究结果,从以创新发展理念引领低碳城镇化、以优化能源结构支撑低碳城镇化、以制度建设保障低碳城镇化、以内涵建设促进低碳城镇化等方面,提出了政策建议。可为安徽省生态省建设及可持续发展战略实施提供决策参考,也可为省域尺度的同类研究提供借鉴。

To explore the limit time of minimum impact of urbanization evolution on carbon emission is of important guiding significance to develop the planning and policies of carbon emission reduction. The carbon emission of Anhui Province from 1995 to 2011 was estimated from two aspects, i.e., carbon source and carbon sink. Kaya identities and factorization model were used to investigate the quantity of carbon emission generated by urbanization development. Referring to economic marginal theories and derivation method, the change rate model of marginal carbon emission generated by urbanization evolution was established to estimate the change rate of marginal carbon emission in research time-series. In assistance of Excel software, a scatter plot was developed with trend line added to describe the changing trend in the change rate of marginal carbon emission. A quadratic function for extreme method was applied to explore the impact limit time of urbanization evolution on carbon emission. The results showed that： 1） the carbon emission of Anhui Province was increased from 21.82 million tons in 1995 to 101.2 million tons in 2011 with annual average amplification of 10.06%; 2） in the research time-series, total carbon emission generated by urbanization evolution was 36.03 million tons with annual average of 2.25 million tons and greater inter-annual change; 3） the fitting curve of change rate of marginal carbon emission generated by urbanization evolution was neither U-shaped pattern nor inverted U-shaped pattern with insignificant time-dimension dependency; and 4） the impact of urbanization development on carbon emission in Anhui Province showed a power function relationship with significant incremental effect of urbanization evolution. Based on the research results, policy recommendations were put forward from the following aspects, i.e., the ideas of innovative development to lead low-carbon urbanization; the optimization of energy structure to support low-carbon urbanization; the development of systems to guarantee low-carbon urbanization; the connotation construction to promote low-carbon urbanization and so on. It can not only provide a decision-making reference for ecological construction and the implementation of sustainable development strategies in Anhui Province, but also offer references for similar studies at provincial scale.