2015航迹与行瞻

2015: review and outlook

2015年集装箱和散货运输市场依然受困于运力供需失衡以及运价低迷，尤其散货需求的大幅萎缩，即使运力增长降至十年最低也难以支撑市场运价。令航运人稍感安慰的是，原油和成品油油轮市场的持续走强，给仍处低谷的航运市场带来一抹亮色。

Entering 2015, the boom of shipping market has a certain transformation in different business sectors.Overall, the shipping market is still not into the spring yet and shipping companies still face severe operating pressure.The spot rates of container shipping are in a sink hole, while charter rates for smaller containerships soar.The demand situation is developing a tad slower than what the market had anticipated. After the expected dip around Chinese New Year(February), volumes have failed to pick up markedly. Global volume growth in Q1 was just 1.8%. Nevertheless, things are moving in the right direction and volume growth across the board is seen reflecting the overall positive macroeconomic development. On the major as well as minor trading lanes out of Shanghai specifically and China in general, spot freight rates are found at a six-year low, for this time of the year; with Shanghai-Korea being the only exception. The overall fleet growth remains on target for the full year at 6.6%. Included to this number BIMCO expects slippage in deliveries to increase for the rest of the year. This is because the market is well supplied with tonnage similar to that being ordered, and the demand side is not performing very well. However, the extent of postponements are possible to achieve for shipowners limited by contractual obligations when they enter into discussions with shipyards. Traditionally the idle fleet has consisted of small to medium sized ships, but right now, the idle fleet has almost disappeared. From that, we learn that the fundamental balance of the smaller sizes has progressed over the past five years and finally brought around improved charter rates. Now it can be argued that it is time for idle larger ships as the overcapacity is clear and present amongst them. Moreover, while idling some of those units we may see the fundamental balance amongst the larger units improve by a scale that higher spot freight rates would be developed too.The lowest fleet growth of dry bulk shipping in 10 years may not prove enough as demand quickly evaporates.Starting the year at index 771 the BDI bottomed out at 509 on 18 February 2015. Since then it has improved but only on a couple of occasions has it been above 600. The market conditions are devastating and volume growth in 2015 on key trades is negative. The lack of coal imports into China is taking centre stage, and lost volumes are difficult to make up elsewhere. The(still) positive iron ore demand is overshadowed in significance as the negative coal market makes headlines. Since the turn of the year, the dry bulk fleet as a whole has only grown by 0.5% and since early February, the fleet has not grown at all. This has happened as the demolished volumes have matched the number for newbuildings being delivered. It is a small consolation that Indian coal imports may go up by 20 million tons, when Chinese imports drop by 30 million tons for the second year running.The tanker shipping market is still strong with coninued positive prospects especially for crude. Earnings forboth crude oil and oil product tankers continue to go from strength to strength. Overall, the lower crude oil prices are supporting refinery margins. This accelerates crude oil throughput and increases demand for transportation of feedstock to the refineries as well as transportation of the refined oil products thereafter. General cargo multi-purpose ship market continues drifting lower, semi-submersible vessel market is relatively stable, asphalt ship market competition intensifies, chemical tanker market outlooks, wood ship market is expected to be stabilized and picks up, the export commodity of car carriers market drops sharply and the boom of plastered ships market recovery. In the first half of 2015, the trends of China's port development overall slowed down and then accelerated, the overall situation of throughput growth of foreign trade was better than domestic trade and inland port better than coastal. At the same time, the ports are actively building the connectivity of transportation, trade and industry cooperation and capital investment channels with countries and ports according to the "One Belt, One Road" initiatives.