我国公共债务对三次产业增长的动态影响研究

On Dynamic Effects of China's Public Debt on the Three Industrial Growths

发行公共债务是实施扩张性财政政策,进而刺激三次产业和经济增长的重要途径和有效手段。在理论分析的基础上,利用1981-2013年时间序列数据,建立可变参数状态空间模型,研究我国公共债务对实体经济及三次产业的动态影响特征。实证结果表明,公共债务流量和存量对我国实体经济及三次产业增长均具有正向的促进作用,其影响程度呈不断增强的态势,并且债务存量的产业增长效应强于债务流量;债务流量对第二产业的促进作用最为明显,而债务存量更能促进第三产业的增长。因此,在保持债务总量可控的前提下,应通过合理调整公共债务投资方向,促进产业结构调整和均衡发展,实现经济持续平稳增长。

Issuing public debt is an important and effective way to implement expansionary fiscal policy and stimulate the three industrial and economic growths. Based on theoretical analysis, this paper uses the time series data from 1981 to 2013, and builds variable parameter state space models to study the dynamic effects of China＇s public debts on the real economy and the three industrial and economic growths. The empirical results indicate public debt flows and stocks have increasingly positive impact on China＇s real economy and the three industrial and economic growths. Besides, public debt stocks promote industrial growth better than debt flows. Debt flows have the most significant positive effect on the second industry while debt stocks give a greater boost to the third industry. Therefore, on the premise that we can keep the total debt under control, we should promote industrial structure adjustment and balanced development to achieve sustainable economic growth by reorienting？public debt investment.