膨胀还是坍塌:城镇化对育龄妇女生育规划的影响研究

Expansion or Collapse: the Study on the Impact of Urbanization on Women Fertility Planning

近年来,"计划生育"持续引发各相关社会阶层针锋相对的争议。科学回答"如果不实行‘计划生育’,中国未来的人口增长趋势究竟会怎样?"这一根本问题将成为解答争议的关键要件。本文基于独立于部门利益之外的非官方CHNS调查数据,首次利用倾向评分匹配(PSM)的方法定量分析在不实行"计划生育"的条件下,城镇化对育龄妇女生育规划的影响。结果表明:城镇化会使无子女育龄妇女和有子女育龄妇女当期准备要孩子的概率分别下降5.43%和3.45%;使相同条件的无子女育龄妇女和有子女育龄妇女的理想子女数分别减少0.32和0.364个。这意味着,对放开"计划生育"之后可能会出现报复性人口膨胀的风险可不必过于担忧,因为中国正在经历的城镇化将会从根本上改变家庭生育规划,并最终导致自然生育率下降。

In recent years,＂ Family Planning＂ continuously caused controversy in all relevant sectors. The key element to resolve the dispute is to answer the fundamental question ＂if there is no ＇family planning＇ ,what will happen for China＇ s population growth trend in the future？＂ Based on the unofficial CHNS survey data which is independent of sectoral interests ,this paper studied the impact of urbanization on women childbearing planning under the assumption of no ＂family planning＂ with the method of propensity score matching （ PSM ）. The results showed that ： Urbanization make the probabilities of childbearing planning for childless women and the women with children fell 5.43% and 3.45% , respectively, as well as make the ideal number of children for childless women and the women with children decrease by 0. 32 and 0. 364. This means that it is not necessary to worry about the risk of population retaliatory swell after ＂family planning＂ liberalization, for that the urbanization China is experiencing will radically change family fertility planning, and eventually lead to a natural fertility decline.