城市群内城市产业辐射效应测算

Quantifying the Radiation Effect of Industry in Urban Agglomerations

作为“十二五”规划重点发展对象,城市群在我国经济发展中占据重要地位。通过构建城市产业辐射力模型和城市产业辐射断裂带模型,测算城市群中核心城市特定产业的辐射能力与范围,并利用2000~2012年数据实证测算京津冀城市群中北京市对周边地区房地产业的辐射影响。研究结果表明产业辐射断裂带呈微缩趋势,影响因素源于城市群机理、宏观经济背景、行业特征、政府政策、供需双方行为5个方面。该研究为测量城市群内城市特定产业的辐射力强度与范围提供了理论方法;有助于政府部门全面掌握城市产业辐射力表现,为科学制定城市产业发展规划提供参考与依据。

As the key subject of the 12th five-year development plan,the importance of urban agglomerations in national economy development is rising. This study established an industry radiation force model and radiation fault zones model to quantify the radiation force and area of specific industry of core cities in urban agglomerations. Based on data from 2000 to 2012,the study measured the real estate radiation force and range of Beijing to its surrounding cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Results show that the fault zone is shrinking and is affected by five factors,including the mechanisms of urban agglomerations,macro-economy operation, industrial characteristics,government policies,and the supply and demand sides of real estate market. This study provides method to quantify the industry radiation force and scope and facilitates urban government’s policy making for industrial development.