深圳市商品住宅价格系统动力学模型仿真与政策实验

The Simulation and Policy Experiments of System Dynamics Model on the Commercial Housing Price in Shenzhen

建立深圳市商品住宅价格系统动力学模型,对仿真结果进行短期和长期分析,明确商品住宅价格、人均可支配收入、商品住宅开发投资、GDP等主要指标的变化趋势以及影响商品住宅价格变化的时间顺序,探索商品住宅价格上涨的主要原因。选择中长期贷款利率、税率和基建投资比例、人口自然增长率和基准地价等指标,进行单一指标和多项指标政策实验,寻求商品住宅价格宏观调控的有效手段。研究结果表明:人口自然增长率、税率和基准地价等指标对商品住宅价格、房价收入比的影响更加显著;多项指标政策综合调控效果比单一指标政策更加显著,但不一定优于单一指标调控效果的简单叠加。

This paper built a system dynamics model of commercial housing price in Shenzhen,analyzed the simulation results not only in a short term but also in a long term,made clear the changing trends and time series of some primary indexes,such as housing price per capita disposable income,commercial housing development,commercial housing investment and GDP,effecting the commercial housing price,and explored the main reasons of increasing commercial housing price. Next,the indexes including medium to long term loan interest rates,tax rate,capital construction investment percentage,natural population growth rate and benchmark land price are chosen and used to one-index and multiple-index policy experiments to seek effective means of commodity housing price control. Research results show that：First,some indexes,for example,natural population growth rate,tax rate and standard land price,have more distinct effects on commercial housing price and housing price to income ratio than others;Second, the comprehensive regulation effect of multiple-index policies is more remarkable than that of one-index policy,but is not necessarily better than simple additive effect.