广州和珠海市气温对居民寿命损失年影响的时间序列分析

Impact of air temperature on years of life lost among residents in Guangzhou and Zhuhai：a ;time-series study

目的：评估气温对居民寿命损失年（YLL）的影响。方法收集广州、珠海市居民逐日死亡和气象数据，采用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温对人群YLL风险的累积效应，以及广州和珠海市在高温（0～1 d）和低温（0～13 d）时对人群YLL累积风险大小。结果广州和珠海市日均YLL值分别为1928.0和202.5；两市气温与YLL之间呈现非线性关系。热效应表现急促，当天达到最大值；冷效应出现相对缓慢，滞后5d达到最大效应，持续时间约2周；低温对人群的总效应大于高温；广州市低温对男性影响大于女性；两市高/低温对≥65岁人群的YLL风险均大于＜65岁人群，患呼吸系统疾病人群的YLL风险大于患心血管疾病人群。结论广州和珠海市高/低温均导致居民的YLL风险增加，其中低温影响更大。老年人及患呼吸系统和心血管疾病者为脆弱人群。

Objective To evaluate the impacts of air temperature on years of life lost（YLL） among the residents in Guangzhou and Zhuhai,Guangdong province. Methods Daily mortality and meteorology data in Guangzhou and Zhuhai were collected,and distributed lag non-linear model （DLNM）was used to evaluate the cumulative and delayed effects of daily air temperature on YLL of total non-accident mortality. The accumulative effect of air temperature on mortality under the extreme high temperature（0-1 days）and extreme low temperature（0-13 days）situation in Guangzhou and Zhuhai were analyzed respectively. Results The average YLL was 1 928.0 in Guangzhou and 202.5 in Zhuhai. The exposure-response functions seemed to be non-linear. The hot effect seemed to be acute and reached the peak at the same day,while the cold effect reached the peak at 5th days and lasted for about two weeks. Low temperature had stronger gross effect than high temperature had. The cold effect among males was greater than that among females in Guangzhou. The hot/cold effect on YLL was greater in people aged ≥65 years than in people aged 〈65 years and in people suffering from respiratory disease than in people suffering from cardiovascular disease in both Guangzhou and Zhuhai. Conclusion The effects of high and low temperatures on YLL were obvious,and the impact of low temperature was greater. The elderly and people suffering from respiratory disease or cardiovascular disease are the vulnerable populations.