政策过程视野下重大公共政策风险评估及其关键因素识别

The Risk Assessment and Key Risk Factor Identification in the View of Public Policy Process

作为全社会价值的权威性分配,公共政策的科学性和有效性直接关系着政策目标的达成和社会的稳定发展。随着我国转型期社会结构的分化与利益诉求的日益多元化,影响公共政策制定与实施、制约公共政策功能发挥的风险因素也更加纷繁复杂。为了解当前我国公共政策评估过程中的风险概况与关键风险因素,本文以重大公共政策的社会稳定风险评估为例,依据公共政策过程理论,利用CIM分析法对政策制定与执行过程中的潜在风险因素进行识别和测算,进而识别重大公共政策中风险较高的关键因素,并在此基础上对现行的重大公共政策社会稳定风险评估机制的健全和完善提出针对性的政策建议。

As an authoritative value distribution of the whole society, the scientificity and effectiveness of the public policy has a direct impact on the achievementof policy objectives and the stability of our society. Along with the transi- tion of social structure and the diversification of interest demands, key risk factors which may restrict the validi- ty of the policy are becoming more complicated nowadays. In order to figure out the current risk condition of our public policy process and the key risk factors about it, this essay takes the social stability risk assessment mech- anism as an example. With the method of CIM analysis, this essay achieves the objective of risk measure and the identification of key risk factors. Ultimately, the corresponding policy suggestions about how to improve the current social stability risk assessment mechanism are also discussed.