基于模糊随机理论的短期太阳辐射强度预测

Short-term solar radiation intensity forecasting based on fuzzy-random theory

基于模糊随机理论,提出太阳辐射值预测模型,得到预测云层覆盖率下太阳辐射值的预测区间及期望值等。分析云层覆盖率的随机性和云遮系数的模糊性;运用模糊随机理论处理云遮系数;以无云天气计算太阳辐射值的REST模型为基础,用云遮系数对其辐射值进行修正,从而得到有云天气的辐射值。利用美国BMS光伏电站的数据对模型进行验证,结果表明该模型具有较好的预测精度。

Based on the fuzzy-random theory,a solar radiation prediction model is built to obtain the prediction interval and expectation of solar radiation under the predicted cloud cover rate. The randomness of cloud cover rata and the fuzziness of cloud cover index are analyzed. The fuzzy-random theory is adopted to deal with the cloud cover index. The cloud cover index is used to correct the solar radiation calculated with the REST model for cloudless weather to obtain the solar radiation for cloudy weather. The data of BMS photovoltaic station of USA is used to verify the proposed model ,and the results show that it has higher prediction accuracy.