基于集成法的高速铁路运营安全综合评价

A Comprehensive Evaluation of High-speed Railway Operation Safety Based on an Integrated Method

针对高速铁路安全运营问题,采用集成法进行了综合研究.从“人员-车体-轨道及设备-环境”角度对影响高速铁路安全的因素进行分析,建立高速铁路运营安全的评价指标体系,对高速铁路运营安全进行了评价研究.针对高速铁路运营过程中影响因素进行系统分析,结合结构熵权法、灰色聚类法、模糊评判法的适应性特点,将不同的方法运用到高速铁路运营安全评价的不同步骤中,构建了高速铁路运营安全集成评价方法.将该方法应用于京沪高速铁路运营安全评价,分别对2011～2013年铁路运营安全数据进行采集和计算,结果显示各年京沪高速铁路运营安全值分别为6.1418,6.3149,6.6941,表明京沪高速铁路运营安全状况处于安全等级,且安全值逐年上升,评价结果较为直观的反映了高速铁路运营安全的态势,表明该方法在高速铁路运营安全综合评价应用中有较好的实用性.

This paper aims to develop an integrated method for assessing the high-speed railway operation safety.The operation safety of high-speed railway was studied based on the established operation safety evaluation indexes.The safety of high-speed railway operation can be impacted by different indicators.According to the suitability of Structure Entropy Weight Method,Grey Clustering Method and Fuzzy Evaluation Method,different theoretical method can be used at different stages of the safety evaluation of high-speed railway operation.A more intuitive result can be obtained.The proposed integrated method was applied to evaluate the safety of Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway using the data from the year 2011~2013.The safety indices were 6.141 8,6.314 9and 6.694 1respectively.The evaluation results reflected the level of operation safety on Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway increased.The study concludes that the proposed integrated method is effective and practical in safety assessment for high-speed railway operation.