通货紧缩的定义、度量及对当前经济形势的判断

Definition and Measurement of Deflation and the Status Quo in China

在对通货紧缩的定义和度量标准进行讨论的基础上,本文结合中国经济运行的实际情况指出,尽管当前物价处于较低水平并存在下行压力,但目前货币政策依然松紧适度保持稳健,经济结构的优化使传统物价传导机制发生了明显改变,同时受能源和食品价格等因素影响,未来中国陷入通货紧缩的风险不大。考虑货币因素的菲利普斯曲线VAR模型的预测结果表明,2015年中国CPI将呈缓中趋稳的态势,全年增长率在1.5%左右,因而并没有必要过分担忧通缩风险。当前中国经济进入新常态,应进一步认清引发物价变化的基本因素,明确并坚持宏观调控政策取向,适度降低经济增长目标底线,完善宏观调控框架,在做好总量调控的同时通过全方位深层次改革最大程度地激发经济主体的内在动力,从而真正实现中国经济的长远健康发展。

After the discussion of the definition and measurement of deflation, we point out that although in the low price circumstance, there is little chance of deflation for China considering the monetary factor, the change of price transmission mechanism due to the economic structure improvements as well as the trend of oil and food prices. We also project the CPI based on Phillips Curve VAR model considering the monetary growth. The projection shows the CPI of 2015 will be around 1.5% and we won＇t be worried about the deflation. In the New Normal of China＇s economy, we should recognize the fundamentals of price changes, stick to the macro-economy policy goals, lower the target baseline of the growth, improve the macro policies and promote the endogenous energy of the economy with the all-round deep reform, which will ensure the long and healthy development of China.