驱动美国页岩气开发的核心因素分析及政策启示

The Analysis and Enlightenment on the Driving Factor of the Shale Gas Production of America

目前我国能源供给短缺、消费结构亟需优化的现状,要求我国必须借鉴美国页岩气开发的成功经验,加速国内页岩气开发。现有文献多从定性角度予以研究,或定量分析单一影响要素,尤以技术进步的定性研究较多,但页岩气开发是受气价、采矿业结构调整和技术进步共同影响的。鉴于VEC模型能够反映多变量间长期均衡关系和短期偏离关系的性质,本文通过运用ADF检验、R&D知识存量测度等定量方法,进一步构建了美国天然气价格、采矿业结构变化、技术进步与页岩气产量间的VEC模型,并给出三个因素对页岩气产量的贡献比例。从回归系数来看,技术进步是提高美国页岩气产量最重要的因素,采矿业结构变化次之;而在页岩气产业开采初期,相较于投资开采技术创新和调整采矿业结构升级,适当抬高天然气价格才是提高页岩气产量最关键举措。最后,提出加大国内页岩气开发技术的研发投资、出台税费补贴等政策建议,为今后我国促进页岩气开发及有效利用提供数据支撑及理论借鉴。

The United States has been capable of commercially exploiting large-scale shale gas since 2006 due to the breakthrough of the technology of shale gas exploration and development. And shale gas industry and its cor- relative industries have supported more than 600,000 new jobs and contributed nearly ＆ 77 billion value to the U- nited States＇ GDP only in 2010. The huge success of shale gas revolution of the United States is recognized by the contribution of the technological innovation, the increasing of the market natural gas prices, the transformation of the energy consumption structure and the long-term government subsidies for technology development and so on. The development of shale gas in the world will become an important resource production project with the spread of the advanced technologies. As for China, the 18th CPC National Congress and the National ＂12th Five-Year Plan＂ all clearly put forward the requirements of ＂cxpediting the development and utilization of unconventional oil and gas re- sources, such as shale gas＂. Today, in view of the fact of the energy shortage and the necessity of the optimization of energy consumption structure, it＇ s a very correct choice to improve the exploration of shale gas according to the successful experience of America. The previous literatures mainly inquired into the development strategies of shale gas industry from a qualitative point of view or investigated one single influential variable from a quantitative perspective. However, the exploitation and development of the shale gas industry are influenced by the combination of the natural gas prices, the mining industry transformation and the technological progress and some other reasons. Here, we will give three core fac- tors＇ contribution ratio of the shale gas production by analyzing the quantitative relationship among the natural gas prices, industrial structure changes and technological progress. Then we compare the shale gas mining conditions of America with China and prioritize the strategies of developing shale gas industry to ensure the security of national energy and promote sustainable economic development of our country. This paper applies some quantitative methods such as ADF unit root test, R＆D, Johansen Co-integration test and so on to build a VECM which includes four variables： U. S. natural gas prices, the industrial structure changes, technological progress and shale gas production in view of the VECM＇ s function of reflecting the equilibrium rela- tionship of a long period and the deviated relationship of the short term among multiple variables. We then turn out that the natural gas prices, industrial structure changes and technological progress all have a significant impact on shale gas production of America, and we also give these three factors＇ contribution ratio to the shale gas produc- tion. From the regression coefficients, the factor of the technological progress is the most important factor in increas- ing shale gas production, followed by the factor of the change of industrial structure. But if we establish impulse re- sponse function and variance decomposition diagram based on VEC model, we can see that the variation of the natu- ral gas prices gives the greatest contribution among the three factors to shale gas production. Therefore, the most critical mean of improving our country＇ s shale gas exploitation process is to raise the prices of the natural gas appro- priately and make the shale gas market become marketization pricing in purpose of promoting the enterprises＇ de- velopment of shale gas industry in the short term. Finally, we also suggest that the government should take in the advanced technologies and experience of the U- nited States but it does not mean to copy its advanced experience. And at the same time we should formulate the technology innovation strategies on the national level. China also should increase R＆D investment gradually in terms of the domestic shale gas developing technology and introduce some favorable tax subsidies and other policy propos- als and so on to provide data support and theoretical references for the boost and efficiency of shale gas industry in future and to improve the speech right of deciding the international energy prices gradually.