用水变化动态结构分解分析模型研究Ⅰ：建模

Dynamic structural decomposition analysis model of water use evolution Ⅰ:Modeling

在国民经济发展中用水变化受到多种驱动因子的影响。为分析各因子对用水变化的贡献,本文针对结构分解分析(SDA)模型静态性和分解结果不唯一性问题,引入一种时间路径函数,构建了动态SDA模型。模型考虑了节水技术水平、经济系统效率、人口规模、消费水平和最终需求结构5个影响因子,引入非线性时间路径函数建立时间路径表达式,并通过解线性方程组获得唯一时间路径参数。其时间路径函数能很好的表达影响因子变化的客观规律,保证了分解结果的可靠性。该模型兼具动态性、唯一性、客观性和普适性,对相关研究具有重要参考价值。

Water usage in economic development is affected by various driving factors. To quantify the con- tributions of the factors to water use evolution and address the static and decomposing non-uniqueness is- sues of structural decomposition analysis （SDA）, in this paper, a dynamic SDA model has been proposed by introducing a nonlinear time path function. Five factors were included in this model such as the techno logical development, economic system efficiency, population scale, consumption level and final demand structure. The nonlinear time path function was used to conduct the time path expressions depicting the changes of the factors. The factors＇ time series values were used to construct linear equations, of which the solutions bring with unique parameters of the time path with respect to each factor. The time path func- tion can objectively capture the changing path of factors, which guarantees the availability of decomposition results. This model is strongly recommended because of its dynamics, result uniqueness, objectivity of time path and applicability.