中国消费者信心与消费之间的实证研究

Empirical Study of Relationship Between in China Consumer Confidence and Consumption

基于2006~2013年的季度数据,运用格兰杰关系检验和协整检验分析了消费者信心与消费之间的关系。研究结果表明,消费者信心不是消费的格兰杰原因,而消费确是消费者信心指数与满意指数的格兰杰原因;消费和消费者信心之间存在长期的均衡关系,消费者信心对当期消费具有正向的影响。

Base on the quarterly data from 2006 to 2013,the relationship between consumer confidence and consumption is analyzed by employing Granger casualty test and Contegration test.Result demonstrates that consumer confidence is not the Granger Cause for consumption,consumption is the Granger Cause for consumer confidence index and customer satisfaction index,it exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between consumption and consumer confidence,and consumer confidence has positive influence on consumption.