利用三点法-灰色组合模型预测铁路路基沉降

Application of three-point-method-gray GM(1,1) combination model in settlement prediction for a railway line

针对三点法与灰色GM(1,1)模型在沉降预测中的优势与不足,该文结合组合模型的构建理念,提出误差平方和最小的三点法-灰色GM(1,1)组合模型的预测方法。最后通过在实验中分析相关系数和预测误差,将组和模型预测和单预测模型进行对比,结果表明该方法能较好用于某铁路客运专线路基的沉降预测,为相关研究提供参考。

Aiming at the advantages and disadvantages of the three-point method and grey GM （1, 1） model in settlement prediction, the paper put forward a prediction method of three-point-method-gray GM （1, 1） combined model with the the smallest sum of squared errors based on the construction idea of com- bined model. Finally, the combined prediction model and the single prediction models were compared by the analysis on the correlation coefficients and the prediction errors of a settlement prediction for the roadbed of a Railway Passenger Dedicated Line, and the result showed the feasibility of the proposed method.