经济新常态下的“十三五”环境压力预测

Forecast on Environmental Stress in the 13th Five-Year under New Normal Economy of China

我国经济已经从高速增长转向中高速增长的新常态阶段,经济发展方式从规模速度型粗放增长转向质量效率型集约增长,产业结构从劳动密集型向资金密集型和知识密集型转换,经济发展动力从要素驱动、投资驱动转向创新驱动。经济新常态下,环境保护将迎来难得的历史机遇,同时也面临严峻的挑战。为了深入理解和准确把握经济新常态下我国"环境态"的发展特征,本文基于中长期环境经济预测模型定量测算了2020年我国社会经济、能源和水资源以及主要污染物排放趋势和特征。结果表明,"十三五"期间,我国能源和水资源消耗总量增长将趋缓,新增消耗量进入涨幅收窄期;产业转型升级加速将从源头上减轻新增污染减排的压力,主要大气和水污染物排放将进入高位平台期,排放强度将呈现高位回落。

China＇ s economy is entering to ＂new normal＂ stage, switching from high-speed growth to moderatespeed growth. The pattern of economic development pays more attention to quality and efficiency, rather than scope and speed, of economic growth. The industrial structure switches from labor-intensive industries to capital intensive and knowledge intensive industries. The driving forces of economy also switch from traditional factors, such as labor, land, investment, to innovative technology. Under the new normal economy, environmental protection work will have a rare opportunity to improve China＇ s environment quality, at the same time, also faces serious challenges. To clearly discern new characteristics of environment in China＇ s new normal economy, this paper predicted the trend of economy, energy use, water withdrawal and pollution emission in 2020 based on National Long-term Economy-Environment Prediction and Simulation Model （NLEEPSM）. The results show that the growth of freshwater and energy consumption will slow down, and incremental quantity of freshwater and energy consumption will less than before; incremental pollution emission will reduced due to accelerated industrial transformation and upgrading, and the emissions of major pollutants will hit a plateau, coupling with sharp decrease of emission intensity.