经济发展和气候变化与乌鲁木齐市生活用水关联度分析

Economic Growth and Climate Change Impact on Domestic Water Changes and Grey Correlation Analysis in Urumqi City

乌鲁木齐市是个极度缺水的城市,人均水资源占有量较低,城市生活用水紧缺已愈发明显。通过收集2006-2012年社会经济数据、1990-2012年的城市生活用水量数据序列和气象数据序列,利用灰色关联分析法和线性趋势法,对经济发展、气候变化对城市生活用水量的影响进行了研究。结果表明:1人均日生活用水量与与第三产业产值平均关联度为0.895 7,说明城市生活用水与经济发展有极强关联;2利用多项式模型来提取气候变化引起的生活用水量,发现2000年后气候变化引起的生活用水量波动剧烈。通过建立城市生活用水趋势模型,预测了城市人均生活用水量。计算表明,若年平均气温上升1.0℃,人均年生活用水量将增加12.807 m3。

The city of Urumqi suffers extremely water shortage and the per capita amount of water resource has already scarcity. Taking Urumqi as the research object,the grey correlation analysis method and linear trend of economic growth and climate change is analyzed,according to urban domestic water consumption data and the climate data series collected from 1990 to 2009,based on which,the effects of economic growth and climate change on urban water consumption are studied. The results show that： 1the average correlation between per capita domestic water consumption and tertiary industry output value was 0. 895 7,that means economic development has a strong correlation with urban domestic water; 2Polynomial model is used to extract climatic domestic water consumption,prediction model for urban domestic water consumption tendency is established,to calculate predicted per capita urban water consumption,which can increase by 12. 807m^3 if annual mean temperature increases by 1. 0℃.