单一供水模式下城市供水风险评价

Urban Water Supply Risk Assessment under Single Supply Mode

北方单一供水模式增加了城市供水风险,耦合模拟退火粒子群优化和模糊层次分析对供水指标体系进行优选,应用基于可变模糊集思想的多元联系数进行风险计算,构建了单一供水模式下城市供水风险评价模型。以济宁市六个行政区为例,分别进行风险计算,并应用模糊聚类分析法对模型计算结果进行合理性验证,为北方以地下水作为唯一供水水源城市寻求多元化供水模式提供理论依据。

The use of single water supply mode in North China enhances urban water supply risks. In this study,the simulated annealing particle swarm optimization and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process were coupled and used to select the optimal water supply index system. The water supply risks were computed via the multi-element connection number based on the idea of variable fuzzy set. Then an urban water supply risk assessment model under the single water supply mode was constructed. With the six districts in Jining city as examples,their water supply risks were computed separately. Then the reasonableness of the model-based computations was validated using the fuzzy clustering analysis. This study provided a theoretical basis for exploration of multiple water supply modes in many cities in North China,where groundwater is the only source of water supply.