中国城镇居民生活完全能源消费影响因素的实证研究

Empirical Study of Influence Factors of Total Energy Consumption in Urban Residents' Life in China

本文在对中国城镇居民生活完全能源消费的变化规律进行深入分析的基础上,针对中国现阶段能源消费特征,引入城市化因素,分析中国城镇居民生活能源消费的影响因素。运用协整方法分析我国城镇居民生活能源消费量与主要变量之间长期均衡关系,发现居民消费支出对能源消费影响更大,其次是能源消费强度,影响最小的是人口因素;最后采用蒙特卡洛方法动态地解释和预测在各解释变量服从既定概率分布的前提下城镇居民生活能源消费变动情况。研究结果表明:在2020年,中国城镇居民生活能源消费的变动情况,超过70%的概率在76340.97到89039.33万吨标准煤之间,而过高或过低的增长都会带来经济社会成本。

Based on the thorough analysis of the change law of complete energy consumption in urban residents＇ life,the present paper discusses the influence factors of energy consumption in China＇s urban residents＇ life by taking into account the energy consumption characteristics at present in China and by introducing urban factors.The paper analyses the long-term equilibrium relationship between China＇s urban household energy consumption and the main explanatory variables by using the method of cointegration.Consumer spending influences the energy consumption the most.The energy consumption intensity ranks the second and the demographic factors influence the least.Finally by applying Monte Carlo simulation,we provide a dynamic explanation and forecast the development trend of China＇s household energy consumption as well as its distribution based on the assumed probability distributions for each explanatory variable.These findings suggest the possible future changes in China＇s urban household energy consumption in 2020.Over 70% probability is between 890.3933 to 763.4097 million tons of standard coal.Too low or too high growth will bring about social and economic costs.