基于元胞自动机的船舶交通仿真模型及应用

Simulation Model of Ship Traffic Based on Cellular Automata and its Application

为掌握琼州海峡中船舶的运动态势,提出一种基于元胞自动机的可模拟狭水道和繁忙水道船舶交通的仿真模型。基于元胞自动机模型,将琼州海峡通航分道网格化;结合船舶领域,制定船舶跟随规则和船舶穿越规则;采用离散事件模型产生不同类型、不同航速的船舶,模拟海员在各种航行环境下的反应并比较船舶实际通过海峡的航行时间和模拟通过海峡的时间。由于仿真模型没有完全考虑影响航行时间的细微因素,因此所有仿真模型中船舶的航行时间与船舶实际航行时间有一定差值,但都在可接受范围内。

The traffic volume in Qiongzhou Strait will significantly increase due to the development of economy. Therefore, it is important for the maritime authority to have the future picture of ship traffic in the Strait. A simulation model of ship movements in the narrow and busy shipping channel is proposed for that purpose. The simulation model is built on the basis of the cellular automata model and the theory about ship domain, taking interactions between consecutive ships into consid- eration according to the expert judgments . Discrete event models are applied to generate vessel samples of different categories and velocities. The navigation rules for a ship following another ship and for ships crossing each other are used to simulate the mariners＇ response to various navigational scenarios. The model is verified by comparing the actual travel time through Qiongzhou Strait and the time derived from the model. The comparison shows that the difference between the time derived from the model and actual time is acceptable.