基于系统动态耦合模型的河湖水系连通与城市化系统协调度分析

Coordination Degree Analysis of Water Connected System and Urbanization System Based on Dynamic Coupling Model

当前河湖水系连通已成为解决人水矛盾、实现可持续发展的战略选择。为有效促进河湖水系连通的工程实践,探究工程实施后河湖水系连通系统与城市化系统的相互作用机制,基于系统工程理论,综合考虑复合系统静态和动态层面,建立了系统动态耦合模型。在模型框架内,用综合发展度、耦合度和系统协调度定量表示复合系统的耦合协调状况,并以桂林市两江四湖工程为例,在时间尺度上定量分析了复合系统的演变规律。结果表明,工程实施后桂林市河湖水系连通系统与城市化系统的系统协调度等级接近良好耦合发展,今后应加强非工程措施建设,与工程措施互补,实现复合系统长期协调发展。

At present, new connected of water system becomes the strategic choice to solve the contradictory between human being and water and realize the sustainable development. To effectively promote the water system connecting engi neering practice and research the interaction mechanism of water connected system and urbanization system after practi- cing, based on the system engineering theory, the dynamic coupling model is established by considering the composite system of static and dynamic level. In the framework, the comprehensive development degree, coupling degree and coor- dination degree are used to quantitatively reflect the coupling coordination of composite system. Taking two rivers and four lakes project of Guilin for an example, the evolution law of composite system is quantitatively analyzed on the scale of time. The results show that after the practicing of this project, the coordination degree between water connected system and urbanization system of Guilin becomes close to the good development. In future, it should he strengthened the con- struction of non-engineering measures and complemented the engineering measures for promoting the long-term coordina- ted development of a composite system.