创新投入、产业结构与经济增长

Innovation Input, Industrial Structure and Economic Growth

创新是经济增长的长期动力。当前,中国经济同时面临增速下行压力和结构调整要求。加快实施创新驱动发展战略,提高经济增长质量和潜能,促进产业结构优化升级,是新常态下中国经济发展的必然选择。基于2002年到2012年省级面板数据,运用面板LA-VAR模型分析中国创新投入、产业结构和经济增长三者之间的关系表明,中国创新投入对经济增长具有重要推动作用。但目前创新投入结构不尽合理,在一定程度上阻碍了产业结构向高级化水平发展,并导致产业结构凝固。经济增速提高对产业结构的带动作用不显著,也未导致创新投入强度的提高,即经济增长与创新投入之间没有形成联动机制。产业结构向高级化发展能够有效提高经济增长速度,但对创新投入强度呈负向影响。处理好三者之间的关系,形成彼此相互促进的联动机制,必将有助于中国经济转型和平稳增长。

Innovation is the lasting power for economic growth. slowdown of economic growth and requirement for an updating At present, Chinese economy faces a of structure. It is an inevitable choice of development of Chinese economy to improve quality and proficiency of economic growth, and pro- mote optimal updating of industrial structure in a new normal state. Based on provincial panel data from 2002 to 2012 and adoption of panel LA-VAR model to analyze the relation among Chinese in- novation input, industrial structure and economic growth it shows that innovation input propels eco- nomic growth, but at present, the structure of innovation input is not reasonable, for it hinders indus- trial structure to develop to a higher level and leads to an industrial concretion of the latter. The in- crease of economic growth does not propel industrial structure very much or the improvement of the intensity of innovation input, i.e. there is no coordinated mechanism between economic growth and in- novation input. Updating industrial structure helps improve speed of economic growth, but influences negatively on intensity of innovation input. It is good to deal well with the relation among the three and form an active coordinated mechanism so as to help Chinese economy to transform and grow steadily.