顺义区手足口病发病的气象影响因素研究

Study on influence of meteorological parameters on incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Shunyi district, Beijing

目的探讨顺义区手足口病发病与气象因素之间的关系,筛选适合因子预测手足口病发病趋势。方法收集2009-2013年顺义区手足口病每月发病率及同期气象资料,气象数据经膨化处理,用SPSS 20.0软件分析两者相关性,并用逐步回归分析建立手足口病的气象因子拟合模型。结果手足口病发病月分布呈单峰分布,5-7月达到发病高峰,月发病率在0.12~96.09/10之间。手足口病发病与月平均气压呈负相关,与月平均气温、湿度、月累计日照时数、月累计降雨量、月均温差5个因子呈正相关。手足口病最优气象因素回归方程变量包括d2（提前2个月均温差）,t1（前1个月均温度）,p2（提前2个月总降雨量）,调整后R2为0.766。结论气象因素对手足口病发病有重要影响,可以利用气温、温差、降雨量拟合模型预测手足口病发病趋势。

Objective To identify the relationship between hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） and meteorological parameters for selection of appropriate predicting factors for the incidence trend of HFMD in Shunyi district. Methods Spearman＇ s rank correlation was used in the analysis of the correlation between meteorological parameters and incidence of HFMD per month from 2009 to 2013.Stepwise regression analysis was performed to model the HFMD change regarding meteorological parameters. Results Single wave was observed in the HFMD incidence seasonal succession curve, indicating that incidence reached apeak in May- July, that incidence was 0.12 ~96.09/100 000 per month. It was found that HFMD incidence was negatively correlated with the monthly average atmospheric pressure,positively correlated with the monthly average temperature,the monthly average relative humidity,the monthly sunshine time,the monthly total rainfall,the monthly average difference in temperature.Stepwise regression analysis showed that d2,t1,and P2 could be used for predicting HFMD incidence best,that adjusted R2 was 0.766. Conclusion Since the incidence of HFMD was correlated with meteorological parameters, its change could be predicted by a temperature,difference in temperature and rainfall fitting model.