新疆农作物播种面积与人口数量变化的相关分析

Correlation Analysis of the Planting Area and the Change of Population in Xinjiang

在1983-2013年新疆农作物统计数据的基础上,分析新疆农作物总播种面积、粮食、棉花、油料、蔬菜、瓜果播种面积变化情况及其与新疆人口数量的相关关系。结果表明:1983-2013年新疆农作物播种面积呈增加趋势,粮食作物面积变化幅度较大,棉花播种面积稳步上升,油料播种面积呈现震荡式变化,蔬菜和果园整体呈增加趋势。随着农业的发展,粮食作物的主体地位逐渐减弱,而经济作物的主体地位逐渐上升。从1990年开始,新疆人口自然增长率明显高于全国水平,1990年自然增长率达到最高点18.60%,且随着时间的发展,二者的差呈递增趋势。1990-2003年,新疆人口自然增长率与全国相比差值在5%以下,而2003-2013年差值在5%以上。随着新疆总人口的增长,不同种农作物播种面积的增减幅度有所不同,表现为:总农作物>棉花>油料作物>蔬菜作物>果园作物>粮食作物。虽然人均农作物播种面积和人均棉花播种面积都呈现递增趋势,但粮食作物人均播种面积呈现递减趋势,人口高增长速率将可能增加新疆粮食安全压力。

Based on agricultural statistics dada from 1983 to 2013,the correlation between the variations of sown areas of total crop, food crops, cotton, oil crops, vegetables, orchard and the population in Xinjiang were analyzed. The results showed that,from 1983 to 2013,Crop planting area in Xinjiang showed a trend of increase; Variations in grain crop area is larger, but the overall trend is declining; Cotton planting area is rising steadily; Oil area sown change with shock type; Vegetables and orchard area both show increasing trend as a whole. With the development of agriculture,grain crop＇s subject position in gradually weakened, while economic crops＇s main body status in gradually rise Since 1990, the natural population growth rate in Xinjiang significantly higher than the national average,natural growth rate peaked at 18.60% in 1990, and with the development of the time,their difference is in increasing trend. During 1990-2003, natural population growth rate of Xinjiang is below 5% compared with the national, and the difference in more than 5% from 2003 to 2013. With the growth of the population in Xinjiang,different types of crop plant- ing area has different increasing or decreasing amplitude, total crops 〉 cotton 〉 oil crops 〉 orchard 〉 vegetable crops 〉 food crops. Although per capita crop planting area and per capita cotton planting area all showed a trend of increasing, but the per capita grain crop area showed a trend of declining, so the population growth rate will likely increase food security in Xinjiang.